Kilimanjaro's ice set to linger

By Jonathan Amos Science reporter, BBC News, Vienna

Kilimanjaro: Ice fields at the equator are a huge tourist draw

A fresh assessment suggests the famous ice fields on Africa's tallest mountain will be around for decades yet.

Recent concerns that climate warming would rob Mount Kilimanjaro of all its glaciers within 20 years are overly pessimistic, say Austrian scientists.

Their weather station data and modelling work indicate the tropical ice should last well beyond 2040.

Precipitation and not temperature is the key to the white peak's future, the University of Innsbruck-led team says.

"About five years ago Kilimanjaro was being used as an icon for global warming. We know now that this was far too simplistic a view," said Thomas Moelg.

"We have done different kinds of modelling and we expect the plateau glaciers to be gone roughly within 30 or 40 years from now, but we have a certain expectation that the slope glaciers may last longer," added colleague Georg Kaser.

If one wants to be more precise, I would call it the 'evaporating glaciers of Kilimanjaro' Dr Thomas Moelg, University of Innsbruck

The group's assessment was presented here at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly meeting.

It acts as a counterpoint to the most doom-laden projections for the 5,895m-high (19,340ft) peak, which draws thousands of tourists intrigued by the idea of seeing ice just three degrees south of the equator.

Hanging on

The research team has been using three automated instrument stations on the top of the mountain to collect continuous data on temperature, pressure, solar radiation, humidity and wind.

The recording effort was in position late last year to witness heavy snowfall, which will have led to a slight increase in Kilimanjaro's overall ice volume.

Weather station (dot inside circle) data provides new insight

This glacier growth is only temporary, however. The mountain's ice is dependent on the pulses of moist air that sweep across from the Indian Ocean.

Since the late 1800s, these have become less frequent, and the regular snows that would maintain the ice fields are now a rare occurrence in what has become a much drier climate in East Africa.

Today, the total ice extent - on the slopes and on the plateau - is about 2.5 sq km, down from more than 12 sq km in the early 1900s.

Some scientists have drawn a fairly straight-line curve and forecast a rapid final retreat to a totally bare mountain.

But the Innsbruck team is more optimistic about the medium term having now put real field measurements into a comprehensive modelling programme.

"Glacier recession has been a feature on Kilimanjaro for more than 100 years, but this is the first time we really have a precise understanding of the physical processes that control the glacier-climate interaction on Africa's highest mountain," said Dr Moelg.

'No reservoir'

This work emphasises the significance of the lack of precipitation (250mm per year on the summit) versus temperature (a mean of -7C).

It indicates that glacier mass loss would be about four times higher if precipitation decreased by 20% than if air temperature on the mountain rose by 1C.

Furthermore, it suggests that two-thirds of the ice that is lost goes straight into the atmosphere through sublimation (the direct conversion of snow and ice to water vapour).

"In recent years many people have talked about 'the melting glaciers of Kilimanjaro'. If one wants to be more precise, I would call it the 'evaporating glaciers of Kilimanjaro'," said Dr Moelg.

This confirms the view that the African peak does not play an important role as a reservoir for water, unlike in the Andes and the Himalayas where some lowland cities and agricultural systems are dependent on summer melt high in the mountains.

"This is not a factor at all at Kilimanjaro and it never has been," said Professor Kaser.

"If you brought all the remaining ice down to the Amboseli National Park and melted it, the water would only cover the park to a depth of one or one-and-a-half millimetres. There is nothing in terms of water up there."

The Innsbruck research was conducted in collaboration with the University of Otago, New Zealand, and the University of Massachusetts, US.

The team stresses that the drying of the East African climate around Kilimanjaro may itself be a regional impact of global climate change.

Migrating birds suffer huge loss

By Rebecca Morelle BBC News science reporter

The birds that winter in Africa are most affected

Migratory birds have suffered a dramatic decline in numbers, according to a study.

Species that migrate thousands of miles from Africa to the UK have been the worst hit over the last 30 years.

The researchers say the cause of the decline remains a "mystery", but could be linked to climate change, habitat destruction or pesticide use.

Writing in the journal Biological Conservation, they warn the losses may indicate wider environmental damage.

The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and BirdLife International study analysed population trends of European breeding birds, including non-migratory birds and those that migrate both short and long distances.

These birds have been slipping away from under our noses for 30 years, and we've never has really noticed it before Dr Paul Donald, RSPB

The data spanned three decades, from 1970 to 2000.

"We found that long distant migrants - the ones that go right across the Sahara, like the swallows, flycatchers and warblers - have shown a fairly consistent pattern of decline," said Dr Paul Donald, an author on the paper from the RSPB.

Those that winter in Africa, he said, seem to be the most affected.

The study also compared the long-distant migratory birds with closely related non-migratory birds, but again found in almost every case that the migratory birds faired worse.

The roller has suffered dramatic losses

Fifty-four percent of the 121 long-distant migratory birds studied suffered plummeting numbers or had even become extinct since 1970.

The roll-call of declining species is long.

"Some fairly iconic species have declined enormously in Europe. There is a very beautiful blue and purple bird called the roller - the population of that bird is crashing all over Eastern Europe," Dr Donald told the BBC News website.

"In the UK, other species that have declined enormously are spotted flycatchers, pied flycatchers, wheatears, wood warblers and tree pipits."

Changing climate

The exact reason for the birds' decline, according to the authors, is a "mystery". But several theories to explain the losses have been put forward, and will now be investigated.

One explanation is tied to the changing conditions in Africa, where the birds winter.

"We know that agriculture has spread; we know there has been a long-term drought in the Sahel; and we know huge amounts of pesticides are used to control locust outbreaks," said Dr Donald.

The wryneck no longer breeds in the UK

The swelling size of the Sahara may also be hampering the birds. Migrating birds face longer and longer non-stop flights across the desert.

Climate change has been highlighted as a potential culprit. Warmer springs in Europe are causing some insects to hatch earlier in the year, which means by the time the migratory birds arrive to breed and raise their young they may have missed their much-needed food-source.

"Migrants make up a high proportion of our species of birds, so this is a big conservation issue," said Dr Donald.

"But if you think that these are birds that cover vast areas of the Earth's land-surface - this consistent pattern of decline is indicative that there are some pretty severe environmental changes going on somewhere which might also have an impact on humans."

The authors conclude that urgent action is needed to uncover the cause of the decline.

"There is something about being a migrant that counts against them," said Dr Donald.

"These birds have been slipping away from under our noses for 30 years, and we've never has really noticed it before."

Peru 'must protect Amazon tribes'

By Dan Collyns BBC News, Lima

Illegal logging is harming isolated Amazonian tribespeople

Peru must act swiftly to protect isolated Amazonian tribes from illegal loggers, Latin America's top human rights body has ruled.

Indigenous leaders say the tribes have already suffered untold deaths from diseases contracted from outsiders.

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights judged the risk to these isolated communities so great that it bypassed all the usual procedures.

Peru has been given two weeks to take steps to protect the isolated tribes.

If it fails to do so it could ultimately be subject to economic sanctions.

Profitable business

The pan-American human rights body says that although Peru has created reserves for the indigenous communities who live in voluntary isolation, it does nothing to protect them from gangs of illegal loggers who are chopping down the mahogany-rich forests in which they live.

Indigenous leaders say several loggers have been killed in confrontations with the tribes in the last few years.

But they fear many more of the jungle dwellers have died through enslavement, violence or from contracting illnesses from which they have no immunity.

The steady advance of logging has forced the isolated groups, among them the Mashco-Piro and Yora tribes, deeper into Peru's jungle frontier with Brazil and Bolivia.

The hugely profitable but illicit business sees most of the tropical hardwoods exported to the United States.

This has forced the Peruvian state to take notice.

The Democrat-controlled US Congress has said it cannot ratify a free trade agreement with Peru until makes certain changes, among them adopting and enforcing laws on logging mahogany.

Earlier this week, the Peruvian President Alan Garcia provoked criticism from environmentalists when he said the quantity of mahogany which left the country, legally or not, was insignificant.

To many human rights workers the president's statement confirmed their suspicion that there is little political will to tackle the illegal trade and the isolated people's reserves might not be worth the paper they are written on.

Microwave plan for colossal squid

The squid is thought to be the largest specimen ever found

An industrial-scale microwave oven may have to be used to defrost a colossal squid caught in the Antarctic last month, scientists say.

They are pondering how to thaw out the half-tonne squid in a way that makes sure none of it rots before other parts have defrosted.

The squid has been kept frozen since it was caught by New Zealand fisherman in deep Antarctic waters in February.

Scientists want to preserve the unique specimen for detailed study.

Squid expert Steve O'Shea said the Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni measured 10 metres (33ft) in length.

It weighed 495kgs (1,089lbs), heavier than an initial estimate of 450kgs (990lbs).

Mr O'Shea said it would take days for the colossal squid to defrost at room temperature - meaning its outer flesh could have rotted by the time the centre thawed.

He said a massive microwave was one option.

"There are certain microwave equivalents that are used by industry, for treating timber and the like, that we could probably fit this thing into," Mr O'Shea, of Auckland University of Technology, said.

Museum display

The fishermen were fishing for Patagonian toothfish in deep Antarctic waters when the squid - which was eating a toothfish - was caught in mid-February.

It took them two hours to reel in the huge creature.

The squid was frozen in the ship's hull and brought back to New Zealand for examination.

Scientists believe it is by far the largest specimen of the colossal squid ever caught.

At the time of its arrival, Mr O'Shea said calamari rings made from it would be like tractor tyres - although would taste of ammonia.

The squid is currently being kept at New Zealand's national museum, Te Papa Tongarewa, in Wellington.

Museum officials hope to embalm the squid and put it on display, while giving scientists access to study it.